A tiny fishing village bombed on a serene Tuesday afternoon by heavy artillery fire. Burning buildings, sirens and civilian casualties. Just the latest evidence of North Korea’s unmistakable acceleration in aggression towards its Southern neighbour.
Although the dust has settled over Yeonpyeong Island, it is still obvious that this military exchange threatens the stability of the Korean Peninsula in a way unlike any other since the Korean War. However, ironically it is difficult to know how to interpret this act of unequivocal aggression because, like so much else about North Korea, the haze of miscomprehension and a lack of information have obscured a clear Western vision of North Korean objectives.
If we are to believe the Washington rhetoric, there is no reason to panic. The Pentagon claims that this incident will not be a direct corollary for all out war on the Korean peninsula. However, it is hard to ignore the escalation of events, which has led up to this critical juncture. Last year, the North incited widespread condemnation from the international community by completing a long-range missile launch and its second consecutive underground nuclear missile test. North-South relations plunged into further turmoil last March after the unprovoked sinking of the South Korean naval ship, Cheonan due to a North Korean torpedo attack. Tension between two has treaded the diplomatic tight-rope ever since, as speculation swirls around the passing of power from Kim Jong-il to his son, Kim Jong-un.
All that remains certain is the North’s vehement commitment to competitive confrontation. In a conventional scenario, a dictatorship facing an uncertain takeover would be severely reluctant to raise any kind of noticeable profile when the scrutiny from the international community is so intense, but the North Koreans seem intent on initiating shock waves across the Yellow Sea. However, there is a strand of thinking that injects some form of logic into the North Korean madness. As Kim Jong-il is slowly weaned away from power, his son is struggling to earn the support of the all-powerful army within the country. The so-called ‘Young General’ has little or no military credentials to vaunt, meaning that provocative displays of military intent, much like the shock artillery attack and the torpedo sinking last March, may help Kim Jong-un attain some sort of combative credibility and thus ease his accession to North Korea’s military throne.
Ironically, this theory refracts a ray of optimism through the settling dust that surrounds the two enemies. It could be possible that North Korea’s progressive assaults against the South are founded in internal tussles between factions jostling for political power, rather than an expansionist desire to influence international relations.
However, no-one can deny that the direct political rhetoric emanating from both countries is becoming increasingly worrying. A South Korean military official, Marine Commander General Yoo Nak-Joon, appeared hell bent on exacting revenge ‘a hundred and a thousand fold’ on North Korea for the deaths of two marines, who fell as a result of the artillery bombardment. The funeral for the two marines was held, somewhat provocatively, in conjunction with the military exercises of USS George Washington (a nuclear powered aircraft carrier) just west of the Korean Peninsula. Whether the Pentagon felt that this would act as a subtle deterrent against North Korea’s volatile behavior and a show of solidarity towards the South or whether it was simply a routine training procedure is unclear, however, there is no doubt that sooner or later, Barack Obama’s axiomatic skills of diplomacy will be severely tested.
At this point, the situation only seems to be escalating, with North Korea recently sending further artillery shells over the border, although none of the shells actually crossed into South Korea. In retaliation, the South Koreans have launched an extensive propaganda campaign designed to erode Kim Jong-il’s credibility by sending anti-Pyongyang leaflets in balloons over the de-militarized zone between both countries. Although this may be small beer to the North Koreans at the moment, it shows that the South is not intent on ignoring the two countries’ conflictive concoction for long.
If the North Korean threat continues to escalate and the Pacific Basin does indeed spiral into armed conflict, it is the West who will be required to find a diplomatic solution. However, it is unlikely that Britain will experience the level of military involvement that was employed for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Firstly, with £83 billion being axed out of the economy, another £6 billion being reluctantly shifted across the Irish Sea for an economic bailout, and the possibility of more hard cash being shipped across the continent to Portuguese and possibly Spanish recipients, Britain simply cannot afford a war in the Pacific.
Therefore, once again, it will be up to Uncle Sam to don his world policeman outfit and baton. The recent deployment of the USS Washington off the South Korean coast may exacerbate the situation rather than soothe it. Rash actions in the face of raw conflict often exacerbate hostile situations. Indeed, the move has already caused substantial froideur between Washington and Beijing, which regards the Yellow Sea as its ancestral waters and which has, significantly refrained from condemning its communist ally in Pyongyang over the artillery attacks. This kind of breakdown in Sino-American communication and understanding only threatens to destabilize the region further.
The situation in the Korean peninsula is as unstable as it has been at any point since the end of the war in 1954. However, to avoid the engenderment of further conflict and the frightening possibility of a nuclear war in Korea, clear, cooperative and perceptive policies are needed. A sidelining of socio-political differences and an insistence on coercive diplomacy on an international basis against North Korea represents the best way of easing the worrying developments in the Yellow Sea.