Tony Blair releases memoirs ‘My Journey’

Now that Mr. tony Blair has published “My Journey” and President Obama has withdrawn American combat troops from Iraq, it is apt time to review the lessons of this haunting, protracted global trauma.

1. Instability: Iraq yet stands destabilised and torn by sectarian strife. The local police, security forces are currently ill-equipped to enforce law and order due to divisions amongst themselves, lack of training and experience. American troops may have marched out of combat, but Iraq will struggle for many years, to stabilise, politically and economically, due to the absence of robust civil service, army, police forces.

2. High Human Cost: The Iraq war has been horrendously painful in terms of human loss and hurt. It is estimated to have cost 100,000 to 150,000 Iraqi lives, over 4,400 Allied troop lives. The war has cost the America USD 2-3 Trillion, when it is already reeling under a debt of USD 13 Trillion. There is another cost: the trauma of an entire generation of Iraqi children witnessing inordinate levels of violence, death, guns, bombs, bullets, which will maim their minds and intellects for the rest of their lives. Over 1.5 million Iraqis yet live as refugees.

3. Poor intelligence: No weapons of mass destruction were found, in 7 years, the “raison d’être” for this war! The lamentable Iraq mission, could have been prevented, if only the embattled leaders knew that there are no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. So much bloodshed, pain and hurt could have been avoided. The best intelligence agencies in the world, could not ferret out the truth, prior to the war.

4. Avoid armed embroilments: In his speech, President Obama proclaimed, “Because of the drawdown in Iraq, we are now able to apply the resources necessary to go on offense (in Afghanistan).” This would be another mistake. Like the war in Iraq, the war in Afghanistan will also get stretched. Innocent lives will be lost. This will create ill-will and rancor towards NATO countries in many parts of the world.

It is unfortunate that many USA Presidents got embroiled in unnecessary, unwinnable wars; e.g. President Kennedy in Cuba, President Johnson and Nixon in Vietnam, President Bush Sr. and Bush Jr. In Iraq and now President Obama in Afghanistan. President Carter and President Clinton avoided starting their own wars, and hence enjoy global respect.

5. Leaders responsibility: Global leaders should realize that wars are not won by armies alone. People and nations, are won over by ideas and integrity. There are quite a few simmering disputes in the world viz: Palestine and Israel, India and Pakistan over Kashmir, USA’s displeasure with Iran’s nuclear plans. These issues will not be resolved through armed actions. Discussions, negotiations are key factors in resolving these flashpoints.

6. Management Failure: The biggest lesson of the Iraq war, has been the need to possess skills to manage a foreign country. The war with the regular army of Iraq lasted barely 2 months. All the problems commenced when victory was declared, after the downfall of Saddam Hussein. Mr. Tony Blair, the ex-PM of UK, candidly admits in his recently released memoirs, “I could also see we were in danger of having won the war, then losing the peace.” (Page 452).

How do you move into a new country, and mange it, without the support of the local army, police, civil service. When you cannot even speak the local language, how do you establish communication and trust? Managing any country requires, rigorous knowledge of ground realities, systems and processes. And, managing a hostile country, brimming with a civil war, required herculean management systems and skills.

7. Leaders responsibility: Global leaders should realize that modern ideological wars are not won by armies alone. People and nations, are wooed by ideas and integrity. There are many simmering disputes in the world viz: Palestine and Israel, Lebanon, India and Pakistan over Kashmir, USA’s displeasure with Iran’s nuclear plans. None of these issues will get resolved through armed action. Discussions, negotiations are key factors in resolving these flashpoints.

To summarise: All wars are wretched and must be avoided. It would be a mistake to think that there was a “bad war” in Iraq, and the “good war” is in Afghanistan. All wars and battles, reflect the failure of leaders, to resolve issues through debate and discussion. This, our leaders must comprehend lucidly.

Yours sincerely,

Rajendra K. Aneja

Post Box No: 29016
Dubai
UAE

BLAIR’S COURAGEOUS JOURNEY!

The memoirs of the ex-PM of Britain, Mr. Tony Blair, entitled, “My Journey” make brilliant reading. His career reveals how self-discipline and study can propel an ordinary citizen, to the highest office in his country.

Mr. Blair’s exhaustive autobiography has been subjected to severe criticism by the press. The launch has been marred by anti-war protests. It is become fashionable to lampoon President Bush and PM Tony Blair, at every possible occasion, frequently, in disregard of facts.

It is a fact, that the Iraq war was based on an incorrect premise, i.e. there existed weapons of mass destruction. Mr. Blair admits the mistake candidly. He apologises, as: “The intelligence was wrong. We admitted it, We apologised for it. We explained it, even.” (Page 454). Again, on page 374, he admits, “We thought there was an active WMD programme and there wasn’t.”

Yes, the Iraq war was a human tragedy. But is Mr. Blair alone to be blamed? Allied forces, had changed the regime within 2 months. Then, the Sunni and Shia factions, got embroiled in a violent power struggle. This is when all the problems commenced. Extremists took advantage of this schism. Iraq became a quagmire. Everyone wanted an “out”, but nobody knew how to exit quickly and seamlessly. The war, had become a can of worms.

For the last 7 years American forces have been doing a “holding operation” in Iraq, to prevent local mayhem. The leaders of various local factions, groups should have appealed to their followers for peace and galvanised them productively. Moderate Muslims, across the world, should have stepped in, to counsel the warring factions. But, they did not.

Moderate Muslims, have principally, looked the other side and maintained a sullen, helpless or discreet silence, whenever there has been a terrorist attack, e.g. 9/11 in the USA, 26/11 Mumbai attacks, and various suicide bomb attacks in Pakistan, Indonesia, London etc.

If the Allied presence in Iraq, was so resentful, why are so many Iraqi Government leaders and ordinary people apprehensive of the withdrawal of combat troops?

So before, we blame President Bush and PM Blair for all the problems in Iraq, we need to understand the context in which the war was initiated and the indifferent role of local leaders and neighbouring countries. But then as Mr. Blair, writes, (page 373), “The trouble with debating Iraq is that, by and large, people have stopped listening to each other.”

Mr. Blair comes across as rare leader: an idealist, yet a pragmatist, who has the courage of his convictions, in domestic and foreign policy. It is significant, that after his departure, his successor could not even survive one full term!

Mr. Blair became PM of Britain, when the country as demoralised and performing indifferently on the economic front. He stimulated the country, and gave it new hope, with his “New Labour” programme. I was in London around the time he was elected. Tony Blair had the status of a rock star, or the Beatles! Everyone wanted to see him, touch him!

It is a tragedy that a leader, who started with profound promise and potential, now has to write a autobiography of 718 pages, to explain his decisions and actions to the world. Truly, leadership is a lonely profession.

The Iraq war was a serious error, but Mr. Blair’s legacy should be seen in its entirety. “My Journey” ultimately, is an endeavour by Mr. Blair to come to terms with his decisions, their impact and his struggle to understand the global outcry against the Iraq war.

Rajendra K. Aneja

Dubai
UAE